Whether the second-year quarterback is ready or not, the Trey Lance era is here. Luckily for him, Kyle Shanahan and the rest of the San Francisco 49ers offer a pretty big safety net.
This is one of the most dynamic offenses in the league and could be even better with Lance’s dual-threat wheels adding a new wrinkle to a playbook that ranked Top 6 in a number of advanced metrics in 2021.
Defensively, the 49ers are deep and dominant at the line of scrimmage, stuffing the run and getting to opposing passers. San Francisco’s NFL odds have high hopes, giving the points in as many as 13 games and saddled with a schedule that is set up for success.
That said, this team is just 16-25-1 ATS as a favorite during Shanahan’s time in San Fran. We pan for gold with our San Francisco 49ers NFL betting preview.
San Francisco 49ers futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +1,600 |
| To win conference | +700 |
| To win division | +175 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 10.0 (Under -120) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -215 / No +185 |
Best futures bet: Win NFC West (+175)
With lookahead lines calling for as many as 13.5 wins plus rave reviews of QB Trey Lance coming out of camp and early preseason play, the 49ers are looking pretty damn good as we get closer to kickoff 2022.
The team does have quality competition on the calendar. Still, the schedule makers shine down on Kyle Shanahan’s team, namely after the Week 9 bye when San Francisco fails to play a true road game from Week 10 to Week 14 and finishes the year hosting six of the final nine contests.
Its only real sticky schedule spots come in the team’s only back-to-back road games, which pits San Francisco against Atlanta, and a short week for Thursday Night Football in Week 15 at Seattle.
But wait… that’s not all.
The Niners’ top competition in the NFC West finds themselves in tough schedule spots when San Fran rolls around on the sked. Arizona is playing its second of back-to-back away games when it travels to the thin air of Mexico City to play the 49ers in Week 11 and then sees San Francisco in the Week 18 finale — another second of B2B roadies and its third in four weeks.
As for the Rams, they run into a similar road-heavy spot in Week 4, playing the 49ers on the second of back-to-back away games as well.
San Francisco 49ers betting overview
What will win bets: Offense
The Niners were already tough to slow down, not only coming at defenses with a deep room of running backs but transforming WR-turned-RB Deebo Samuel into one of the most dangerous weapons on the ground in 2021. Add a dash of Lance’s crazy legs in 2022, and San Francisco’s system is going to be a headache for even the stingiest stop units.
The “Guess Who?” depth of this running game not only allows the 49ers to set whatever pace they want and chew up time of possession (so valuable when protecting leads) but it opens things up for RPO and play-action spots. More specifically, establishing the run will lead to deeper passing strikes from that misdirection.
Kyle Shanahan held his breath every time Jimmy Garoppolo threw more than 15 yards downfield last year, and it already looks like the head coach has far more confidence in Lance’s deep looks. San Francisco injected extra speed into the system this offseason, hoping to hit far more home runs.
What will lose bets: Pudgy point spreads
As mentioned, the 49ers are point spread favorites in as many as 13 games, according to lookahead lines for the 2022 season. That puts them behind Tampa Bay (fave in 16 games) and on par with Green Bay and Los Angeles (faves in 13) in the NFC pecking order.
Those lines include two big piles of chalk to start the schedule: -7 at Chicago and -9 vs. Seattle. San Francisco should smash those opening foes and, if the early spreads are any indication, the Niners are going to look very good to the betting public with potential cakewalks versus Chicago, Seattle, Carolina, and Atlanta in the opening six games (average spread of -6.75 in those matchups).
The odds are already high on the 49ers this summer despite the most important position on the field being a big question mark. Sure, Lance looks good in practice and exhibition, but what happens in real life?
If the Niners roll those weaker foes, the point spreads will puff up like a bee sting and skew the market ahead of some stiffer competition in November/December.
More Covers NFL betting analysis
- Super Bowl odds
- NFL MVP odds
- Comeback Player of the Year odds
- Defensive Player of the Year odds
San Francisco 49ers game-by-game odds
Early lookahead lines released in the late spring had San Francisco installed as a point spread favorite in 10 games with two pick’ems on the board. However, later lookaheads and line adjustments over the summer have the Niners giving points in as many as 13 games with two PKs — panning out to an estimated 13.5 victories versus a season win total as low as 9.5 (Over -145).
San Francisco does face one of the gnarliest schedules in the NFL, ranked out T5 in standard SOS. This is largely due to drawing the AFC West in non-conference play, which pits the 49ers against the last three Super Bowl champs: L.A. Rams (twice), Tampa Bay, and Kansas City.
But between those marquee matchups lies some very winnable games against some of the league’s lesser life forms, sinking the 49ers’ QB SOS to 13th.
San Francisco is a fave of a touchdown or more in four games in 2022, with Kyle Shanahan going 8-4 SU but just 3-8-1 ATS as TD-plus chalk during his time by the bay.
| 1 | @ Chicago | -7 | 42 |
| 2 | vs. Seattle | -9 | 43.5 |
| 3 | @ Denver | +2.5 | 46.5 |
| 4 | vs. L.A. Rams | -1.5 | 49 |
| 5 | @ Carolina | -4 | 43 |
| 6 | @ Atlanta | -7 | 45 |
| 7 | vs. Kansas City | PK | 48.5 |
| 8 | @ L.A. Rams | +3.5 | 47.5 |
| 9 | BYE | ||
| 10 | vs. L.A. Chargers | -1.5 | 48 |
| 11 | vs. Arizona (Mexico City) | -1.5 | 48 |
| 12 | vs. New Orleans | -5.5 | 42 |
| 13 | vs. Miami | -4.5 | 44.5 |
| 14 | vs. Tampa Bay | PK | 49 |
| 15 | @ Seattle | -4.5 | 43.5 |
| 16 | vs. Washington | -7.5 | 42.5 |
| 17 | @ Las Vegas | -2 | 48 |
| 18 | vs. Arizona | -3 | 46.5 |
San Francisco 49ers pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
Starting Trey Lance is a high-risk, high-reward decision in comparison to Jimmy G, a player where you know what you’re going to get. I’m betting on Kyle Shanahan and this loaded skill position group succeeding with Lance under center.
Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!
“
Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)
“
